The fuel crisis in Russia is a stark reminder of the economic turmoil that the country is currently facing, and it's a situation that is likely to have far-reaching consequences. While the Kremlin has worked hard to insulate most people from the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the fuel shortages are a stark reminder of the impact that the conflict is having on the country's economy and its people. The queues at petrol stations in Moscow are a symbol of the frustration and anxiety that many Russians are feeling, and it's a situation that is likely to have a significant impact on public opinion. The Kremlin is certainly paying attention, and President Vladimir Putin has addressed the fuel shortage publicly, insisting that the Ukrainian attacks are creating problems but that the situation is not critical. However, the authorities are taking no chances and have already begun increasing fuel imports, subsidising fuel prices, and allowing the sale of lower-grade fuel that some fear could damage engines. The fuel crisis may be a game-changer for economic growth in Russia, and it's a situation that is likely to have a significant impact on public trust in Putin. The latest poll by the independent organisation Levada Center suggests that Putin's approval ratings are dipping, and that the number of Russians who believe the country is heading in the right direction has fallen. This is a significant shift in public opinion, and it's a situation that is likely to have a significant impact on the Kremlin's strategy. The question is, will all this translate into political pressure on the Kremlin to change tack? In my opinion, it's unlikely that Putin will bend. The more pressure he feels, the more likely he would act aggressively and repressively. I think it is serious, but the Western expectation that Russians are going to just take down the regime is very far-fetched. Russians had been feeling a lot of anger and desperation, but also 'a lot of resignation about what's going on'. European hopes that they could force Putin to the negotiating table were a fantasy: 'I mean, that doesn't happen'. Instead, all the signs are that Putin is doubling down. Last Friday he was filmed in military fatigues, meeting commanders where he claimed victories on the front line and promised to take yet more territory. But then Putin told his generals to analyse the involvement of Ukraine's European allies in 'real combat actions' that he claims are extending the war. 'We need this analysis for taking responsible decisions in the future', he said without expanding. It is a phrase that has raised eyebrows in diplomatic and military circles. The question being asked in Western capitals is what Putin might do next. Will he escalate? And if so, how? Personally, I think that the fuel crisis is a significant development, and it's a situation that is likely to have a significant impact on the Kremlin's strategy. However, I don't think that it will lead to a change in tack. Instead, I think that Putin will continue to double down, and that the situation will only get worse. The fuel crisis is a stark reminder of the economic turmoil that Russia is currently facing, and it's a situation that is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the country and its people.
